Decision Curve Analysis

Compare a model's net benefit against treat-all and treat-none across the full range of threshold probabilities, and find where — if anywhere — the model actually wins.

decision curve analysis
net benefit
clinical utility
threshold probability

Net benefit: model

0.844

Net benefit: treat all

0.871

Net benefit: treat none

0.000

Decision curve: model vs. treat-all vs. treat-none

ModelTreat allTreat none

Where the model wins

The model's net benefit exceeds both treat-all and treat-none for pt in roughly [0.40, 0.89]. Ask whether a clinician's real threshold for this decision falls inside that window.

Net benefit is not a universal utility function

It encodes one particular exchange rate between false positives and false negatives, and ignores test cost, capacity, delay, downstream treatment efficacy, and unequal harms. It only answers whether the model beats guessing or treating everyone, given an assumed risk tolerance pt.

Preparing the simulation…