eGFR Decline: Surgical Plan Explorer

Regress post-operative renal function on tumour size, baseline eGFR and surgical extent, and see the trade-off a nephron-sparing plan buys.

regression
renal function
surgical planning
prediction

Predicted decline summary

Mean predicted decline

11.394

SD of predictions

7.767

Radical coefficient

15.158

Distribution of predicted eGFR decline

PartialRadical

Predicted vs. observed decline

An association is not yet a causal effect

Forcing every test patient to "radical" shifts the whole distribution upward by roughly the radical coefficient — that is what the regression attributes to surgical extent, holding baseline eGFR, size and age fixed. It is not a guarantee about what would happen to any specific patient under a different plan; that requires a causal design, not a regression coefficient.

Preparing the simulation…