Growth Rate Sensitivity Explorer
Hold a cross-sectional tumor-size distribution fixed and watch the implied natural-history timescale swing wildly as the assumed growth rate changes.
- sensitivity analysis
- natural history
- tumor growth
- assumption dependence
Implied years from initial lesion to observed size
Growth trajectory with observed tumor volumes
Summary statistics
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Tumors (n) | 298.000 |
| Median implied years | 4.701 |
| IQR (years) | 2.9–7.1 |
| Assumed growth rate | 0.40 cm/yr |
| Initial diameter | 1.0 cm |
The data didn't change — only the assumption did
Every histogram above is generated from the same fixed cross-sectional tumor sizes. Sliding the assumed growth rate from 0.2 to 1.0 cm/year moves the median implied age of these tumors by more than a decade. Reporting a natural-history timescale from cross-sectional imaging without stating (and justifying) the growth-rate assumption is a hidden modeling choice dressed up as a measurement.