Model Comparison Explorer

Compare logistic, regularized and neighbourhood models on the same split, with uncertainty attached to every difference.

model selection
cross-validation
uncertainty
benchmarking

logistic on External test set

Metric	Value
AUC	0.663
Sensitivity	0.500
Specificity	0.885
PPV	0.400
NPV	0.920

ROC curve

Calibration

Confusion matrix

	Pred +	Pred −
True +	2	2
True −	3	23

Ranking is not calibration

Switch to the flexible ensemble and look at its calibration plot: points cluster far from the diagonal even when its AUC looks competitive. Then flip between Internal and External for each model to see which ones degrade gracefully under distribution shift and which ones collapse.

Preparing the simulation…